What happens when the Fed controls too much of a Treasury issue?

In 1991, Salomon Brothers found out the illegal way — cornering 86% of a two-year note and pushing repo rates deeply negative. Today the Fed does something structurally similar every day, without anyone trying to corner anything: at the peak of QE, it held 61% of a single 10-year note's entire float.

This week's piece digs into a new dataset — 668 on-the-run Treasury CUSIPs cross-referenced against auction records back to 2010 — to answer a simple question: what do dealers actually pay when a specific bond gets scarce, and when does that happen?

Cornering the Curve: What SOMA Securities Lending Reveals About Treasury Collateral Scarcity

A new dataset cross-referencing SOMA securities-lending data against Treasury auction records — 668 on-the-run CUSIPs, $97.8 trillion in cumulative par, and the mechanics behind quarter-end collateral squeezes.

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